Anbruggen Capital Crypto Pulse

Latest News

Strategy Continues Buying — Holds 717,131 BTC

• Strategy purchased $168.4 million worth of Bitcoin on the second week of February, bringing its total holdings to 717,131 BTC acquired for approximately $54.52 billion at an average cost of $76,027 per coin.
• Executive Chairman Michael Saylor continues to reaffirm the company's long-term Bitcoin treasury strategy despite BTC trading below their average cost basis.

Our Take: Strategy's continued accumulation below its average cost basis is a notable signal of conviction. While the stock premium has compressed with BTC prices, the firm's cash-flow levers and financial engineering capacity support sustained purchases. This ongoing institutional bid provides an important psychological floor and reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity narrative during periods of broader market weakness.

BitMine Adds $90M in ETH — Tom Lee Says Sentiment Echoes 2018 and 2022 Bottoms

• The Ethereum treasury firm continued its buying spree with its largest weekly ETH purchase in token terms this year, bringing its cumulative ETH acquisition to over 4.37 million tokens.
• BitMine chairman Tom Lee argued that the current sentiment profile — Extreme Fear, forced liquidations, and institutional outflows — is structurally similar to prior cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022, which preceded significant recoveries.

Our Take: Tom Lee's cycle-bottom comparison is a meaningful data point, though calling exact bottoms remains notoriously difficult. What is more actionable is the observation that previous Extreme Fear readings at this depth have historically offered attractive entry points for patient, long-term investors. The consistent ETH accumulation by institutional treasury firms signals growing conviction in Ethereum's fundamental role as a financial settlement layer despite the current price pressure.

Intesa Sanpaolo Discloses $100M Bitcoin ETF Holding — European Banking Adoption Deepens

• Italy's largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, disclosed a $100 million position in Bitcoin ETFs, becoming one of the first major European banking institutions to publicly report direct crypto exposure.
• The bank also holds a put option position on MicroStrategy (MSTR), highlighting sophisticated hedging approaches to crypto-adjacent equity exposure.

Our Take: Intesa Sanpaolo's disclosure is a landmark moment for European institutional crypto adoption. Banking regulations in the EU have historically been more cautious than in the U.S., making this disclosure a potential bellwether for other European institutions. The use of ETF vehicles rather than direct custody also reflects the increasing maturity of the institutional crypto infrastructure. This is a constructive long-term signal even as short-term prices remain under pressure.

Global Macro View

The February sell-off in crypto has been driven by a confluence of macro forces rather than any crypto-specific fundamental deterioration. The nomination of Kevin Warsh — a known hawk — as the next Federal Reserve Chair has shifted market expectations toward a more restrictive monetary trajectory for 2026, with rate cuts now pushed further out than previously anticipated. This has strengthened the U.S. dollar and pressured risk assets broadly, with both tech equities and cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt of the repositioning.

Crypto's deepening correlation with tech equities compounded the move. A broad decline in AI and growth stocks — particularly following weakness from major tech names — dragged crypto lower in tandem. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 reached 91% and with the Nasdaq even higher, meaning macro equity moves are now transmitting directly into crypto prices. As Stifel's Barry Bannister noted, Bitcoin is increasingly being priced as a "speculative tech-stock-like instrument," making it vulnerable to any rotation out of growth assets.

Unusual volatility in gold and silver added another layer of pressure. After gold briefly hit a record near $5,595 per ounce, it reversed sharply — disrupting one of the few remaining safe-haven outlets and triggering a broader risk-off contagion that spilled into crypto. Analysts at Bitbank attributed part of Bitcoin's drawdown directly to this "breakdown in precious metals."

Perhaps the most structurally important driver was the unwinding of the Bitcoin basis trade. Hedge funds had been running a popular arbitrage strategy — buying spot Bitcoin ETFs while shorting futures — that yielded as much as 17% annually at its 2024 peak. By early 2026, that spread had compressed below 5%, making the trade uneconomical. As funds mechanically unwound positions, a key source of institutional demand evaporated. Simultaneously, stablecoin market cap shed approximately $14 billion from December through February, signaling that investors were exiting the crypto ecosystem entirely rather than simply rotating between assets.

The result was a meaningful reversal in ETF flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs — which purchased 46,000 BTC in the same period a year prior — turned net sellers in 2026. CoinShares reported two consecutive weeks of outflows totalling $1.7 billion, with year-to-date outflows reaching $1 billion, reflecting what Deutsche Bank described as a "marked deterioration in investor sentiment."

Despite these headwinds, the medium-term liquidity picture has not fundamentally deteriorated. Global M2 is at historically elevated levels, the Fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% remains accommodative by historical standards, and Goldman Sachs notes that 71% of institutional asset managers plan to increase crypto exposure over the next 12 months. VanEck characterizes the current drawdown as "orderly deleveraging" — futures open interest dropped over 20% in a matter of sessions, clearing speculative excess without triggering systemic failure. Historical precedent suggests that deep deleveraging events where Fear & Greed reaches single digits have typically preceded meaningful recoveries over the subsequent 3–6 months.

References:

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination — CNN Business: cnn.com
Tech Equity Sell-off & Crypto Correlation — CNBC: cnbc.com
Gold & Silver Volatility / Geopolitical Risk — Al Jazeera: aljazeera.com
Bitcoin Basis Trade Collapse & Stablecoin Outflows — Investing.com: investing.com
ETF Outflows & Institutional Demand Reversal — CNBC: cnbc.com
Bitcoin ETF AUM ($115B) & Goldman Sachs Institutional Survey — CoinDesk: coindesk.com
"Orderly Deleveraging" / Futures OI Drop – VanEck: vaneck.com
Fear & Greed Extreme Fear: bitcoinethereumnews.com
Broader Market Sell-off & Institutional Outflows — CNBC: cnbc.com
Stablecoin Market Cap, Bitcoin Basis Trade: Investing.com

Crypto Spotlight

Bitcoin Dominance — The Flight to Quality

Amidst the broad market correction, one data point stands out: Bitcoin dominance has climbed to nearly 60%, its highest level since 2021. As altcoins have bled more severely than BTC — Ethereum down ~35% YTD, Solana down ~40% from its highs — capital has rotated into Bitcoin as the relative safe-haven within the crypto asset class.

This pattern echoes prior cycle corrections where Bitcoin dominance expanded as risk appetite contracted, only to see a reversal (known as "alt season") once Bitcoin re-established a stable base. The current BTC dominance expansion may indicate a market that is repricing risk premiums across the crypto spectrum, consolidating around the highest-conviction asset before risk appetite returns.

Chartbook

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin is currently at the 200-week moving average and testing the key $65,000–$70,000 psychological support zone. Further decline is expected if this previous resistance turned support zone does not hold.

Ethereum (ETH)

As of this writing, ETH is trading near $1,950, approaching the ascending trendline support of a potential multi-year ascending triangle forming on the weekly timeframe. Should ETH hold the rising trendline support, the pattern remains intact and would set up a potential breakout toward new all-time highs over the medium term.

Solana (SOL)

SOL has been among the harder-hit major assets, currently trading at the $85 area that needs to be defended by the bulls, or else might turn into resistance again.

Looking Ahead

The remainder of February is likely to remain challenging as markets continue to digest a confluence of headwinds — the hawkish pivot implied by the Warsh Fed Chair nomination, ongoing tech equity weakness, and the mechanical unwinding of basis trades and leveraged positions that accumulated during 2025's bull run. We do not expect a return to all-time highs in the near term, but the structural case for a recovery in Q2–Q3 2026 remains compelling.

Key catalysts to monitor include: the trajectory of Bitcoin ETF inflows (a reversal from recent outflows would be a high-signal recovery indicator), any developments on the U.S. crypto market structure legislation currently advancing through Congress, and global M2 liquidity dynamics as central banks globally continue to navigate the post-tightening environment.

At Anbruggen Capital, we maintain a disciplined approach through volatility — no leverage, diversified positioning, and a focus on fundamentals. The current Extreme Fear environment is, historically, when the groundwork for the next leg of outperformance is laid. History has consistently shown that bear markets are the period of maximum opportunity for patient investors with a long-term mindset — and capitalizing on exactly these moments is something Anbruggen Capital has done before and is firmly committed to doing again.  We remain cautiously optimistic on Bitcoin and select high-conviction ecosystems for the medium term. Reach out at [email protected] to discuss how to position for the potential recovery ahead.

Disclaimer: Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.